Q4-2025 Geopolitical tensions to define a tenuous global landscape.
Our thoughts. | Geopolitical outlook. | September 26, 2025. | Written by Team of experts.
The final quarter of 2025 is poised to be a period of significant geopolitical friction and economic uncertainty, as the world grapples with a deepening leadership vacuum, the persistent fallout from ongoing conflicts, and the growing specter of protectionism. A “geopolitical recession,” characterized by the erosion of international institutions and a turn towards unilateralism by major powers, is expected to shape global events, creating a volatile environment for international relations and the global economy.
A key driver of this instability will be the continued inward focus of the United States, which is anticipated to persist regardless of the specifics of its domestic political landscape. This inward turn has created a leadership deficit on the global stage, leaving many international challenges to fester. In Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine will continue to be a primary security and economic concern, with the potential for a protracted stalemate testing the resolve and unity of western allies. The approaching winter will likely exacerbate the energy security dilemma for the continent.
In the Middle East, the anniversary of the Israel-Hamas conflict is a significant flashpoint, with the potential for renewed violence and extremist propaganda. The broader regional tensions, including Iran’s geopolitical maneuvering, will remain a critical watchpoint.
Economically, the global outlook is one of “tenuous resilience.” The first three quarters of 2025 were marked by a mid-year economic slowdown, partially obscured by earlier export frontloading in anticipation of increased tariffs. Persistent inflation, particularly in the United States, will continue to be a major concern, influencing monetary policy decisions. The rise of protectionist measures and the imposition of trade restrictions are expected to further weigh on global trade and economic growth. Emerging markets will face a mixed and challenging environment, with their fortunes closely tied to the tariff policies of major economies and fluctuating commodity prices.
Several key events in Q4-2025 will serve as bellwethers for regional and global stability. Legislative elections in Czechia and Argentina will be closely watched for signs of political shifts within these key regions. Presidential elections in Cameroon and Cote D’Ivoire will test the stability of these African nations. The 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur will be a crucial forum for Southeast Asian nations to navigate the crosscurrents of major power competition and rising trade barriers.
In this fragmented and uncertain landscape, the threat of non-traditional security challenges will also be pronounced. The risk of sophisticated cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure remains high, reflecting the growing weaponization of the digital domain. As the world navigates these multifaceted challenges, the final quarter of 2025 is likely to be defined by a palpable sense of flux and a heightened risk of miscalculation, demanding careful and agile diplomacy to prevent the escalation of existing and nascent crises.